Finally Meinel found several queries that directly detected baserates.
Query: This case is similar to this question. It is much like many historical events, with growing inequality and decreasing social mobility. This situation is unstable and will lead to growing violence.
Figure 1: Successful baserate finding query.
Meinel also tried a query of many rationales that looked sort of like base rates and correlated it with forecasting scores. Abject failure. See Figure 2 below.
Figure 2: Failure at finding baserates.
Another way to find base rates: take the lowest scored rationales from a query on almost any logical construction. Why does this work? Needs further research.
Figure 3 below: Lowest scores are base rates/comparison classes. Top are logical constructions.
Figure 3 above.
Next, Figure 4, a query for top scores of logical constructions, bottom base rates/comparison classes.
Sorry for this on being hard to read. You can see or download the full spreadsheet here.
Want to see more? Carolyn Meinel's Research Project (continued #2)
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