How many major power outages will occur in the USA in 2022?

M/B Research wants to know.

 

$100 prize money for the best combined non-advanced forecasts on this page. Another $100 for the best of those competing in the two advanced questions.

 

 

If you do not forecast any individual question, or if you begin forecasting after the opening day of the competition, your scores for those days on those questions will be the average of all forecasters on these questions.

 

 

Rules for what constitutes a major power outage:

 

  • They must not have been planned by the service provider.
  • They must affect at least 1,000 people.
  • They must last at least one hour.
  • In each of these, there must be at least 1,000,000 person-hours of disruption.

 

We will score your forecasts based upon: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_power_outages. Because of the possibility of missing or erroneous data as later determined by a consensus of the Wikipedia editors, we will wait approximately two weeks after the end of 2022 to score these questions.

 

Wikipedia pages may be added to or altered by anyone. So if you discover that a major power outage isn't recorded there, please add it yourself. However, be careful to document where you found this news, or the editors might remove your addition.

Forecasts, USA Major Power Outages

 

Recent History

USA Electrical Power Outages

Your Forecasts Here
Location Causes 2019 2020 2021

Your forecast for 2022: How many major outages in the USA?  Please estimate % probabilities for each

 Advanced forecasters: Please estimate your probability graph, all USA major electrical power outages.
Texas snow storm     10 Jan none  
Most of the USA Winter Storm Uri     13-18 Feb 1 or 2
16 States multiple tornadoes   12-14 April   3 or 4
16 States Hurricane Isaias   3-5 Aug   5 or 6
8 States derecho   10 Aug   7
NM, OK and Texas ice storm   26 -28 Oct   8 or more
Texas snow storm 9-11-June     Your forecast for 2022: How many major power outages will there be in Texas, including from multistate events?

Advanced forecasters: Please estimate your probability graph for 2022 major power outages in Texas
Wisconsin thunderstorms, tornadoes and floods 19-20 July    
Michigan tornadoes 19-25 July     none  
New Jersey thunderstorms 22-26 July     1 or 2
East Coast USA Hurricane Dorian 2-21 Sept     3 or 4
14 States winter storm      

5 or more

 

Resources:


 


     

    Because we are still under construction, to sign up for the competition, please email cmeinel [at] cmeinel.com

    More forecasting competitions to come, and soon. We will alert you via email as we build out the site and get more sponsors and prizes.

    One of our working forecasting and counterfactual reasoning models, based upon Good Judgment 2.0's FOCUS platform, soon will be available for test drives. Screen shots and explanations of how it works here --->

     

    August 2021: ISIT's Dawna Coutant and BestWorld's Carolyn Meinel had been combating COVID-19 as participants in IARPA's FOCUS program. We did better than the big modeling teams for the first six months of the pandemic. Then we were about even with the models until Delta arrived. Wow, what a surprise this was to most of our fellow forecasters. See what we had forecasted for 2021 as of August 8, 2020 at Covid_forecasts_2021.html

     

    May 2020: ISIT's Carolyn Meinel explains how she used Natural Language Processing to forecast geopolitical questions in a webinar hosted by Basis Technology: Mirror, Mirror on the Wall -- which Country Will Rule them All?

     

    January 2020: The team of ISIT (its effort led by Carolyn Meinel and Dawna Coutant) and KaDSci, LLC (its effort led by Chris Karvetski and Dan Maxwell) came in 4th place in IARPA's Geopolitical Forecasting Competition out of over 100 initial competitors by forecasting 305 questions within just 5 1/2 months: Details here.

     

    Screenshots from BestWorld's upcoming forecasting/social media platform, based upon IARPA's FOCUS platform. Soon this will become the first use of this platform outside the U.S. intelligence community.

     

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