.: IARPA's Geopolitical Forecasting Competition

ISIT and KadSci, LLC teamed to compete in this competition, which began in mid-May 2019 and ended Nov. 30, 2019.. We spent the first halfof the competition focusing on the science aspect. Then in August we used what we had learned to develop our solution and soared from 27th place in July to 4th place at the end. You can watch ISIT's Carolyn Meinel explain some of how they accomplished this in a webinar sponsored by Basis Technology.

We also used our results as input to a redearch papar that has been published in the world's leading journal on forecasting: What do forecasting rationales reveal about thinking patterns of top geopolitical forecasters? Christopher W.Karvetski, CarolynMeinel, Daniel T.Maxwell, YunziLu, Barbara A.Mellers, and Philip E.Tetlock.

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Feb. 8, 2023 INFER released its list of top geopolitical forecasters for the 2022 season. Unsurprisingly, ISIT's Dawna Coutant (user nme DKC) and Carolyn Meinel made it into the top five for many categories. For accuracy, Dawna was #7 out of 1091 competitors, of whom over 100 were fellow Pro Forecasters.

INFER, short for INtegrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk,"is a forecasting program designed to generate valuable signals and early warning about the future of critical science and technology trends and high-risk geopolitical events for U.S. Government policymakers"

Oct. 2021: ISIT's involvement in IARPA's IARPA's Hybrid Forecasting Competition finally paid off. Although we didn't win a contract, we went ahead and did the research anyhow. See " What do forecasting rationales reveal about thinking patterns of top geopolitical forecasters?" in the International Journal of Forecasting.

August 2021: ISIT's Dawna Coutant and Carolyn Meinel had been combating COVID-19 as participants in IARPA's GJP 2.0 program. We did better than the big modeling teams for the first six months of the pandemic. Then we were about even with the models until Delta arrived. Wow, what a surprise this was to most of us. See what we had forecasted for 2021 as of August 8, 2020 at Covid_forecasts_2021.html

May 2020: ISIT's Carolyn Meinel explains how she used Natural Language Processing to forecast geopolitical questions in a webinar hosted by Basis Technology: Mirror, Mirror on the Wall -- which Country Will Rule them All?

January 2020: The team of ISIT and KaDSci, LLC came in 4th place in IARPA's Geopolitical Forecasting Competition out of over 100 initial competitors by forecasting 305 questions within just 5 1/2 months.